How devastating to planet would the California Big One Earthquake be?

[TK99]

What if (TK prays he is not asking for it by posting it) on Augest 8, 2007 at 4:01 am an 8.0+ Earthquake on the Rickter scale hit along the San Andreas fault?

What would the effect be on...

the state?

the US?

the Western Hempshere?

the World?

[James_T_Kirk]

depends on where.

if it hits in yellowstone near the caldera, it maybe enough to trigger the all feared super eruption.

other scenerios would be,

Near the ocean- Tsnunamis
LA-potential disaster in the making, same for the rest of california

[areoborg]

If San Fransisco sinks into the sea, the collective IQ of the US will go up significantly.

[Kodiak1]

State: Ow. Tens of thousands killed, economy a mess. Refugee crisis.

US: Bad economic hit. Insurence industry probably goes under.

World: Recession along with US.

[Triggerhappy]

Well, the most important thing to remember is that the big one would most likely actually MOVE the roads at its fault line as much as fifty feet. Even if the infrastructure isnt totally trashed it would be hell until everything was back together again.

[404]

Wouldn't such a big earthquake also trigger earthquakes around the Pacific Ocean, the "Ring of Fire" (IIRC).

If so, Japan would face a big problem right there.

[Kodiak1]

Originally Posted by 404

Wouldn't such a big earthquake also trigger earthquakes around the Pacific Ocean, the "Ring of Fire" (IIRC).

If so, Japan would face a big problem right there.

Possible, but that far away, unlikely.

Faults do jolt each other, though.

[Cool Guy]

An 8.0 earthquake hitting the LA metropolitan area would be devistating to the United States (according to the 2004 SCAG State of the Region Report, Southern California's economy, not including San Diego, would rank 10th in the world). The Port of LA/LB is the second most busiest port in the United States, and is where the "Goods Movement" is happening; with that destroyed and no other port/city infrastructure on the west coast adequately prepared to take on the amount ships, prices of consumer goods (clothes, electronics, etc...) would skyrocket.

The rather small Northridge earthquake (6.7) caused over 40 billion in property damage, and an 8.7 would be 100x more powerful. Anything 8.5 and higher would probably level the entire LA region (the U.S. Bank Tower in LA, the one blown up in ID4, is built to withstand an 8.3) and cause loss of life to exceed 10,000.

Originally Posted by James_T_Kirk

depends on where.

if it hits in yellowstone near the caldera, it maybe enough to trigger the all feared super eruption.

[TK99]

Originally Posted by James_T_Kirk

depends on where.

if it hits in yellowstone near the caldera, it maybe enough to trigger the all feared super eruption.

Yellowstone is in Wyoming on the other side of the Rockies.

Yosemite is Califronia, it has the nice water fall.

other scenerios would be,

Near the ocean- Tsnunamis
LA-potential disaster in the making, same for the rest of california

Yes Tsnamies would probly hit Hawii and the West Coasts of North and South America.

[Wendigo]

Not sure how This quake going to jump three states over either.

All kinds of Fuckery is unleashed after the "big one". Then again all kinds of fuckery been unleashed with Katrina so what else is new?

Unless it's under the water or causes a huge chunk of land(Say a few miles long and a few hundred feet tall) to slide into the ocean I doubt there'll be a Tsunami.

[TK99]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

All kinds of Fuckery is unleashed after the "big one". Then again all kinds of fuckery been unleashed with Katrina so what else is new?

Yeah I know.
It sucks that all the armies of man can not oppose us, yet Mother Nature can still make us her bitch on a whim.

Unless it's under the water or causes a huge chunk of land(Say a few miles long and a few hundred feet tall) to slide into the ocean I doubt there'll be a Tsunami.

A chunck of land hunreds of miles long moving north 20 feet is most defently cause Tsnamis.

[wautd]

If it'll cause a global disaster, we'd better launch a pre-emptive strike against the US

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by TK99

Yeah I know.
It sucks that all the armies of man can not oppose us, yet Mother Nature can still make us her bitch on a whim.


A chunck of land hunreds of miles long moving north 20 feet is most defently cause Tsnamis.

I think your confusing a tidal wave with a Tsunami. Tsunmi needs either seafloor shift or a large hunk of rock sliding into the ocean to occur. The P and S waves from a land based Quake will make the water jiggle like you tapped the side of it. Big one will cause swells that will hit Japan China and south East asia but not a Wall of water like a tsunami.

[Mellian]

Originally Posted by areoborg

If San Fransisco sinks into the sea, the collective IQ of the US will go up significantly.

No, thats the other way around.

-mellian

[Ma Deuce]

Originally Posted by Mellian

No, thats the other way around.

-mellian

I think not. Click Me

[Wendigo]

You can't blame all of San fran for that. Just those fucking Hippies and the liberal asshats around Berkley. They need to protest something or their weekend is shot.

[Ma Deuce]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

You can't blame all of San fran for that. Just those fucking Hippies and the liberal asshats around Berkley. They need to protest something or their weekend is shot.

Yeah? What about that recent bit about the USS Iowa being shunned by the elected city council in a 8-3 vote for some very spiteful and irrational reasons?

[Monster104]

I think your confusing a tidal wave with a Tsunami. Tsunmi needs either seafloor shift or a large hunk of rock sliding into the ocean to occur. The P and S waves from a land based Quake will make the water jiggle like you tapped the side of it. Big one will cause swells that will hit Japan China and south East asia but not a Wall of water like a tsunami.

I think you're confusing everything. How was he confusing tidal waves with a tsunami? He said nothing that had to do with tides or waves caused by the gravitational influence of the moon.

A tsunami will occur when a large amount of water is rapidly displaced - it doesn't really matter HOW the water is rapidly displaced. A 8.0 earthquake will move lots of land...which will displace water. Depending on the specifics, The Big One could cause a massive tsunami...or an unnoticeable one. The most likely causes for a massive water displacement would be from some sort of underwater landslide, especially since the California coast has many fractured coastal areas where this could occur.

"Swells" don't hit land. They break into waves as we see them at the beach once the water gets too shallow. If the Big One displaces enough water quickly enough, those "swells" you say will hit China/Japan/South Asia will in fact become a wall of water.

[Wendigo]

There is a difference between the two even if I don't get the names quite right. I say your wrong.

[Shrike]

Originally Posted by Monster104

I think you're confusing everything. How was he confusing tidal waves with a tsunami? He said nothing that had to do with tides or waves caused by the gravitational influence of the moon.

A tsunami will occur when a large amount of water is rapidly displaced - it doesn't really matter HOW the water is rapidly displaced. A 8.0 earthquake will move lots of land...which will displace water. Depending on the specifics, The Big One could cause a massive tsunami...or an unnoticeable one. The most likely causes for a massive water displacement would be from some sort of underwater landslide, especially since the California coast has many fractured coastal areas where this could occur.

"Swells" don't hit land. They break into waves as we see them at the beach once the water gets too shallow. If the Big One displaces enough water quickly enough, those "swells" you say will hit China/Japan/South Asia will in fact become a wall of water.

Given that pretty much all Cali quakes happen inland there's effectively nil tsunami hazard associated with the San Andreas system. It's offshore quakes you have to worry about for tsunamis.

As for the thread itself, we can only hope that a freak event in the quake sends a piece of rock flying across the continent to squash TK99 and put a stop to him posting paranoid, wanky threads about the US.

[Monster104]

Given that pretty much all Cali quakes happen inland there's effectively nil tsunami hazard associated with the San Andreas system. It's offshore quakes you have to worry about for tsunamis.

Tsunami's are caused by more than just offshore quakes. And you are rather mistaken about the rest:

Underwater Landslides Threaten California Coast

Granted, it's from 2000, and they're talking about these landslides causing "local" tsunamis...but they're also saying that can very well happen without the influence of an earthquake. So you're very wrong about the 'nil tsunami hazard' statement.

An 8.0+ magnitude Earthquake inland has a very real possibility of causing even more massive landslides, and many of them, all at once. California's coast is extensively fractured and unstable...if the earthquake this magnitude hit anywhere near California's coast I would place my bets on a correspondingly large underwater landslide occurring, and that will cause a tsunami. If an underwater landslide occurs on the continental slope, which is in MUCH deeper water than slides that occur on the shelf, there could be a tsunami that rivals the SE Asia tsunami. It just depends on how much water gets displaced and how quickly that occurs that will determine how severe of a tsunami it would be.

[Shrike]

Originally Posted by Monster104

Tsunami's are caused by more than just offshore quakes. And you are rather mistaken about the rest:

Underwater Landslides Threaten California Coast

Granted, it's from 2000, and they're talking about these landslides causing "local" tsunamis...but they're also saying that can very well happen without the influence of an earthquake. So you're very wrong about the 'nil tsunami hazard' statement.

An 8.0+ magnitude Earthquake inland has a very real possibility of causing even more massive landslides, and many of them, all at once. California's coast is extensively fractured and unstable...if the earthquake this magnitude hit anywhere near California's coast I would place my bets on a correspondingly large underwater landslide occurring, and that will cause a tsunami. If an underwater landslide occurs on the continental slope, which is in MUCH deeper water than slides that occur on the shelf, there could be a tsunami that rivals the SE Asia tsunami. It just depends on how much water gets displaced and how quickly that occurs that will determine how severe of a tsunami it would be.

The 1906 quake which had a rupture length of almost 500 kilometers (http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/info/1906/howlong.html) had no real tsunami associated with it. California is not a high risk zone for tsunami creation.

[Monster104]

The 1906 quake which had a rupture length of almost 500 kilometers (http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/info/1906/howlong.html) had no real tsunami associated with it. California is not a high risk zone for tsunami creation.

Your link says nothing about the risk level tsunami's pose for California's coast. Did you read my link? It's not very detailed, but it does have some information that shows there IS a risk.

You want some more?

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/itic/library.../Legg_2002.pdf

Sorry, it's rather long, and I haven't read the whole thing (and frankly I don't understand some of the jargon they use at times)...but by what I have read, it sure sounds like there is a clear tsunami risk. It may not be a tsunami on the order of the SE tsunami, but local tsunami's are still tsunami's, and as both of my sources have said, places like Santa Barbara would be thrashed by local tsunamis. It may not be a high risk like you say, but it is a risk nonetheless.

Look, all I'm saying is that taking California's coastal conditions into consideration (there are fault lines everywhere, and the coast is fractured and unstable because of it), when an 8+ magnitude Earthquake hits, you cannot discount that this can happen. It has happened before, even on smaller earthquakes. And if The Big One is as big as some doomsayers predict (upwards of 9.0), who knows what could happen. It sure won't be pretty though.

[Wendigo]

Basicly it says there may be land slides but most of them won't be large enough to produce tsunami. More like the big wave you get when you chunk a stone into water.

Your first article says a 6x9 wide section broke off a long time back and their not sure what caused it but maybe it was an earthquake.
Yes it a risk but it a remote one at best and almost non existant at worst.

Should they have a Quake in the 8-8.5 range they most likly wouldn't be a tsunami. the 1906 quake seem to back that up as it was rated 7.9-8.3 depending on who you ask. It was also a huge quake, size wise at Shrike's link shows.

[Kosh800]

I love people who think CA can actually slide into the ocean and go bye-bye. Give me a damn break ..

As for this thread, it depends on where it hits and how deep it is. Like anything else - it's all in the details.

Say an 8.0 hit downtown L.A. at a depth of 15 miles under ground. We're very much screwed in that area. Those high rises might survive (some) but everything else is destroyed.

Another thing people don't realise, though, is that California is huge. We are spread out like crazy (that's why we all need cars). I remember feeling Northridge and I was in bloody Anaheim. Wasn't a huge quake to me but it woke the family up (except my lazy ass brother who woke up an hour later to get a drink and go back to sleep).

Ever seen ID4? Remember when the mothership was flying over Smith's house and he woke up saying "Earthquake .... earthquake." ... that is what a person from out of CA does. A person who lives in CA has the line of the wife. Something along the lines of "It's not even a 5, go back to sleep."

I really think earthquakes just scare the shit out of some of you folks who don't really live with them. Vibration wont kill you, but a shitty built house will.

One thing I can say for sure is this ...

Jesse Jackson will get on TV asking why so many black people died and white people didnt. Well, thats cause most black people in the So Cal area are poor. Poor people don't live in the greatest built buildings.

I'm tired. I had more to say but screw it.