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Duncan: Economic "Death Spiral" threatens not just daily lives but basic survival for all Americans

Discussion in 'Whitehall - The SB Politics Forum!' started by Cmdr RayCav, Dec 28, 2012.

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  1. Cmdr RayCav

    Cmdr RayCav dramattentionwhorepervert

    This is the exact scenario predicted by economist Richard Duncan as, according to him, inflation will skyrocket to the point where purchasing food or shelter will be a virtual impossibility for most Americans.

    Link: http://moneymorning.com/ob/economist-richard-duncan-civilization-may-not-survive-death-spiral-3/

    I present this article for discussion without further comment, as I do not feel I have sufficient background to add useful opinion.
     
  2. Richardson

    Richardson Solidarity

    Has already shown to be false. Not only that, but taking on more short term debt is the only way to get the economy going again so we can fix the problems.
     
  3. firefossil

    firefossil I have charts. Lots of charts.

    [​IMG]
    American debt is basically what you'd expect it to be when you decide to have a minor recession, cut taxes, fight two expensive wars, then have a major recession and extend the tax cuts. However, its important to realize the nature of the deficit:
    [​IMG]
    The current deficit exists because of reduced employment and increased mandatory entitlement use as a result of the recession. Once the recession ends, the deficits will fall to around the level where natural growth and inflation cancel them out, meaning that our "debt as % of GDP" will become static at worst. This guy has no idea what he's talking about.

    That said, the absurdly large derivatives market does exist, at least according to this esteemed source. I doubt that it means anything especially doom-worthy.
     
  4. Humphnaegal

    Humphnaegal Totalist

    Things can get pretty bad, but I don't see how a depression could be civilization ending, unless all the infrastructure and factories explode, and all agricultural land, everywhere in the world, magically spoils.
     
    Kalashnikov of Fire likes this.
  5. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    I sufficiently long, sufficiently severe depression would see fixed capital gradually degrade, and the skill base gradually erode, so it's conceivable. it's just not particularly likely.
     
  6. SkylineDrifter

    SkylineDrifter Master of the Obvious

  7. SpartanElite

    SpartanElite Jot Coterie Abomination

    Dude that url is crazy.
     
  8. SkylineDrifter

    SkylineDrifter Master of the Obvious

    Thanks for letting me know.
     
    Cmdr RayCav likes this.
  9. It's the austerity bullshit that causes death spirals, not government debt.
     
  10. Inflation does not work that way.

    Inflation can cause disastrous social problems, but that requires the social elites to be particularly stupid.
     
  11. Imperator Pax

    Imperator Pax Talon Master

    Damn Whirlwind you going to let RayCav steal your shtick like that
     
  12. Cmdr RayCav

    Cmdr RayCav dramattentionwhorepervert

    I wasn't trying to be alarmist, I just wanted to see what Spacebattles thought of it (hence "presented without comment"). Frankly I'm glad of the responses it's been getting.

    "MoneyMorning.com" is apparently under the umbrella of Viacom/CBS so I assumed it was halfway credible. Shows what I know.
     
  13. Deadguy2001

    Deadguy2001 Bane of the Sla'haii

    America and Britain should've imploded halfway through World War II; hell, Germany should still be a Somalia-esque anarchy thanks to the Treaty of Versailles.

    Japan should have sunk into the sea like Atlantis a decade ago instead of experiencing modest per capita GDP growth.

    Wut. :wtf:
     
  14. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    Their are potential cirsises looming in all those areas, if we have spectacularly bad luck they'll all go to hell at once.
     
  15. Deadguy2001

    Deadguy2001 Bane of the Sla'haii

    America has more than enough food and water to feed its own population. Although the water issue will eventually be a big issue due to environmental damage, but that's not due for another few decades.
     
  16. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    Isn't the article global in scope?
     
  17. Deadguy2001

    Deadguy2001 Bane of the Sla'haii

    Given how it specifically cites Americans and the American national debt, I'd wager not. :(
     
  18. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    All of civilization is located in America now? We really are doomed.
     
  19. Deadguy2001

    Deadguy2001 Bane of the Sla'haii

    Dude the OP even says that the article is about Americans. And the article is peppered with "America"
     
  20. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    I was going from the line that "Civilization may not suvive 'death spiral", inferring that although the article was most concerned with America, especially as a trigger it wasn't limited to it. On the other hand the article mostly consists of repeating that total credit market's, money supply, food and energy are like a pyramid scheme 3 or 4 times without explaining why so I'm not sure why we're lending it any credibility by discussing.
     
  21. Harry Leferts

    Harry Leferts Solidarity

    The great civilization of "America". :p
     
  22. Flectarn

    Flectarn Solidarity

    [​IMG]
     
    Harry Leferts likes this.
  23. Sucal

    Sucal I need a longer sig

    Goodbye America!

    Australia promises to pretend that your still Politically relevant when we take over the world!

    Enjoy the death spiral
     
  24. Deadguy2001

    Deadguy2001 Bane of the Sla'haii

    I missed that part, because the rest of the crazy blindsided me, but yeah. :(
     
  25. WhiteDragon25

    WhiteDragon25 White Lightning FTW!

    ...RayCav? Wasn't he a poster from SD.Net who got banned for writing a fic of extremely questionable content? Or is this one some other idiot with the same name?
     
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