China starts a war with Malaysia, Taiwan, philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Japan, etc. Due to starting the conflict their enemies expand to America and Europe, etc. as well. Russian support for China is iffy. Assume that all countries (*cough*Phillipines*cough*) have finished modernization. Who wins? Edit:Sometime 2015. Took over the Spratlys Islands. (I know. Not that believable.) The Communist Party go desperate and made this attempt to cement that they were powerful to their citizens. In this case it works. Now their citizens will follow them to hell and back. there will be no compromise. I will go to sleep right now. So if you want. You can be OP for a day and modify it if I get something wrong.
This is an overly broad scenario. Care to throw out a few more specifics on timeframe, reasons for initiation of hostilities by the Chinese, etc?
Philippines is so screwed in the initial stage of the conflict because they are still modernizing their armed forces. It is the only Asian nation that lacked missiles for their armed forces. Their best ground-based AA assets are WWII-era 40mm Bofors guns. That would going to be a pretty humiliating experience for them when they are unable to defend themselves against the long-range Chinese aircrafts as well as warships.
Sometime 2015. Took over the Spratlys Islands. (I know. Not that believable.) The Communist Party go desperate and made this attempt to cement that they were powerful to their citizens. In this case it works. Now their citizens will follow them to hell and back. there will be no compromise. I will go to sleep right now. So if you want. You can be OP for a day and modify it if I get something wrong.
If we assume a 2015 start time for the outbreak of hostilities, the Philippines might not be as screwed as they would be today. Obviously, it still won't be pleasant for them.
After a long, bloody war, china ceases to be a political entity and is divided up by several powers. Possible nuclear exchange involved at some point.
The Chinese don't have very much ability to project force, and that won't have changed much by 2015. The PLAN is still mostly a brown-water navy. If the US is involved... well, there'll be another Ironbottom sound somewhere is all. Even without the US, a coordinated ASEAN response would be quite sufficient to give the Chinese a very bloody nose.
2015 is too soon for the major ship programs to be in effect for the PLAN. Japan and Korea's navy will most likely sink the PLAN blue water assests on their own, granted with heavy loses. PLAAF will be in the best situation, but once the USN gets involved it'll slowly get pushed back. Without the Type 81 and more type 71s the PLAN wont be able to expand fast enough and with sufficient force.
So if I'm reading this right your scenario is thus: In 2015, after all the assorted South-East Asian powers arrayed against China finish their modernization programs, the Chinese communist party get desperate for various reasons and in order to prove their power they invade the Spratlys Islands. This cause a war with the Philippines then Vietnam and then Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, Japan join in since I presume they don't want to give China a chance to win and take over the South China sea. This is followed by the US and Europe joining in. Yes/No?
well even without the US Japan and Korea can give China a bad day as pointed out above. Depending on the level of modernization the other powers will be able to provide local back up and protect their own airfields and ports to allow the US places to operate from. What do the various countries modernization programs entail? I mean Philippines Navy needs a LOT of help if its going to be useful in this so I'm wondering what its planned upgrades are.
As of right now, the Philippines are negotiating for a few more vessels and aircraft. Talk is of transferring the last few Perry Class frigates to them, but I'm not sure if that will happen. As for aircraft, F-16's, probably mid Block models.
