The objective is to occupy Mexico, remove the corrupt government, and turn the country into several functioning American states. Can it be done? -How stiff a resistance would the Mexican army put up? -Cartels. Can they be defeated by the US once the gloves come off? -Mexicans. If the Americans defeat the cartels would they be welcomed by ordinary Mexicans? -Hispanics in the US. What will they do? Any other considerations I missed?
The people in the Mexican border provinces, and those with family in the border provinces are welcoming of any security, tempered by the fact that its coming from the people that buy the cartels product and thus give them the money that causes the problem in the first place. Everyone else is angry at the Gringos for invading Mexico, but not enough to provide support to the Cartels, though they will fight fiercely for their independence with regular Army units. Hispanics across the US protest, by muted by the Japanese WW2 experience they mostly keep it peaceful. Mexican Army below the O-5 level are grateful for someone else taking the Cartel bullets, and could be generally negotiated to switch to the American side. Cartel IEDs plague multiple cities, and include assassinations of many US politicians and terror attacks on the civilian population. Ties to Al-Queada bring in foreign assistance in training and jihadi attackers. It could be done, but the amount of lives and money would make Iraq look like a cakewalk. Still easier than taking over Canada even with a casius belli.
It can be done, and native Mexicans will probably defect to the US. Drug cartels will probably try guerrilla warfare.
What army? Seriously, it's an army designed to smack down rebellious peasants and drug cartels, not to fight the US Army. They won't be able to fight the US in any significant way other then as the core of some post invasion insurgency. Considering that the US cannot even defeat the gangs that turn its inner cities into shit I'd say........ no? Who knows? Depends on how fed up Mexicans are with their own government. Still, no matter how dissatisfied you are with your government would you welcome a foreign invader? Depends on the context of the war. The US has now become the world's largest hispanic nation and whites become the minority overnight. As the new senators and congress men join Capitol Hill Spanish now becomes the new language of Les Estados Unidos? As always blacks will be the biggest losers again.
Speaking as someone who regularly hangs out with Mexicans: No they really wouldn't give a a shit about the fact that Americans buy the Cartel products. Hell, we Colombians never gave a shit about the fact when ever we had trouble with the U.S. You are using absolutes. There are a not insignificant number of people who really couldn't give a crap if the U.S. were rulling things. So many Mexicans have, at one point or another, come here to work with their families before returning to Mexico that being ruled by the U.S. wouldn't be a repelling or novel experience. Why would we? Apart from considering ourselves to be Americans, what connects us is language and culture. We dont relate with the Mexican government at all. Most of us aren't really going to protest just because Mexico is a Hispanic country. It ain't going to be a cake walk, but it certainly ISN'T as hard as you are making it out to be for the simple reason that the Mexican population would be more accepting of American rule.
there was a small but somewhat vocal movement within mexico a few years back calling for the US to annex most of the country because they no longer trusted the mexican government
Define "defeat". The gangs aren't armed enough or dumb enough to go down the insurgency route like the cartels have.
The issue here is that gangs can't really be defeated in any meaningful sense. As long as there's a black market for illegal goods (which is going to be forever) there are going to be armed groups selling said goods. Drugs are just the big ticket item now.
The US do what they do well, they dismantle the Mexican armed forces in quick time. Initially welcomed by the populace as the promise of security, stability and some sense of safety is retuned to the streets. Unfortunately, Afghanistan & Iraq again. The Cartels and Nationalists have learnt the USA's Achilles heel; insurgency. Again, chaos returns to the streets with soldiers and civilians getting blown up by the morgue full. It's not long before US support (if any) falls away and the people of Mexico turn against the Americans as they soon forget the anarchy that preceded the US occupation. Western occupation just doesn't work nowadays, it doesn't work with our ideology. You have to go old Imperial on the population to pull it off and the West is just too squeamish for that now.
They don't need to. These gangs have already been around for decades and so far US law enforcement isn't winning. So, again, if the US can't even get a grip on its street gangs, why should they do any better against the far better armed and organized Mexican cartels. Maybe for as long as Mexico remains occupied territory the US military can go up against the cartels, but once Mexico becomes accepted into the union it becomes a matter for US law enforcement. Also, why should the Mexican people resist the Americans? After all, as soon as they become states of the United States their 113 million votes will turn it into Los Estados Unidos. The US isn't going to take over Mexico, Mexico will take over the US instead. Depending on how many states Mexico will end up being divided into the US senate might remain white dominated for a while though.
In this case not quite, a US annexation of Mexico in all likelihood would be a much easier proposition than Iraq or Afghanistan.
Mexico isn't Afghanistan nor is it Iraq. In religion, politics and ideology Mexico takes A LOT after the U.S. Fuck, do you have any idea how many people that live in Mexico have lived in the U.S. at one point or another? The Mexican people are not going to turn against the U.S. because of insurgency more then they do against their much disregarded government. Which is to say, for the most part, they don't.
It'll hinge mostly on how the GIs treat the Mexican populace, with the Cartels it's "do as we say or you're dead, your family's dead, your kids are decapitated and your grandmas hung from the underpass by her entrails" Give them incentive to side with and accept you and you'll gain many allies, it'll be like the hearts and minds in Vietnam except it'll actually work Most border states would likely go over in short order, question is, can the US deal with the Cartels and succeed where the Mexican government failed? Most strong Mexican governments have been dictatorships others are corrupt and ineffective, maybe things would've been better if Maximilian had survived
