538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared

Purple America Has All But Disappeared

Somehow I doubt the US is entirely alone in this... and it may not end well.

 

Everyone's thinking it and I'm just saying it...

This could be the next Civil war. Or balkanization, if you want to hold out hopes for peace.

The possibility is increasingly likely, and the geographical lines are already drawn. Compromise is dead and honestly when it has been done it hasn't worked. I think we're heading at an accelerating pace towards some kind of violent climax to the past 50 years of American politics, and we have to accept the problem won't go away with election cycles. The coasts and urban pockets make up a majority of the population and do not deserve to be held hostage to the whims of the regressive rural and suburban counties whose geographic spread lets them put the GOP into government, and honestly I'm tired of dragging them along in the same country having to fight tooth and nail just for basic human decency.

I dearly hope it doesn't come to fighting and dying, but something has to give and hope stopped working years ago, if it ever did at all.

 

You think its bad now, think whats going to happen when unemployment reaches 30%.

Thats not hyperbole by the way the tech we currently have in the works can perminatly get rid of 30% of the jobs in america with in our life times, and the mechanization is just getting better stronger and more capable of getting rid of jobs. 30% of the population will for structural reasons not be able to get work period.

We have no plan for dealing with this, we have no idea of how to handle some thing like this and its comming soon. Think polatics are bad now this is freaking cake compared to whats coming soon.

 

The difficulty for the current situation to become a civil war, as has been enumerated in threads on the subject before, is that there is no real geographical divide. Even the "Solid South" isn't really Solid anymore; its all about the urban/rural divide, rather than regional differences. That, and there isn't really a single issue that is as deeply and singularly divisive as the one which caused the previous Civil War, slavery.

 

Though, IMHO, there is not much stopping something that divisive from appearing again. *Looks nervously in the direction of private prisons*.

 

Civil Wars around the world often aren't single issues, and I see little reason why a new American one has to perfectly replicate the first.

Not to mention, a real Second Civil War wouldn't be a clear cut geographical one initially: that happens when the local governments and politically homogeneous military units start taking sides months to years in. Syria, as the current poster child of how a country breaks down into factions gradually, should be looked at. It'd start not with secession but with a gradual ramping up of terrorist and protest activities with supporters of each side taking to the streets to kill each other. Military units get deployed first for riot control, then for suppression of bomb threats that increasingly resemble an insurgency's IEDs in sophistication, then for full-on combat. Defections start happening as politically-motivated soldiers start refusing to work together. Regions start deciding to put together militias who are trained by said defectors, and with the National Guard system and these geographic divisions on politics combined you could see whole units forming the nuclei of the new factions' armies. Eventually the news cycle just gives up and suddenly we've been in a civil war for a few months.

I want the Republican leadership gone, humiliated, and buried in ignominy when they finally kick the bucket alone and unknown in a nursing home paid for by the cold comfort of a meager pension. I want to rub their voters' noses in shit and see them realize how horrifically stupid and bigoted they've been. I want to see my vision of a better world come to pass. I do not want, however, to see my backyard look like the headlines from fucking Syria. I don't want to pull the trigger on people I grew up with but am now political enemies with. This situation is here, however, and it has to be dealt with instead of saying "it can't happen again."

 

I think that it might be a mistake to think a geographical divide between polities and a conventional shooting war is the sort of threat on the horizon. I'm not really sure what might happen in lieu of that, but a lot of tensions are boiling without much of a release valve and a lot of people really, really, really hate each other a lot. Large scale covert conflict (spy games of Red vs. Blue nationwide), what might amount to soft economic terrorism (we're already seeing this with the health care wars in the past decade), and widespread election rigging are the sorts of things I would expect to see more of (Gerrymandering is already this to a limited extent). Sort of a "Cold" Civil War where the boundaries are drawn in pencil instead of ink.

In a lot of ways this has already started. Bathroom bills and the resulting boycotts, the aforementioned health care tug of war that's basically a wealth redistribution war between classes, the DNC leaks scandal with possible Russian involvement, and "Religious Freedom" bills that wreak economic warfare of their own. I'm not so sure that the history books won't say that were already inside a new Civil War that started with Bush's election in 2000.

We already saw with the Cold War that conventional conflict between top tier opponents no longer happens in the way it used to. Maybe Civil War in a country like the USA doesn't look like anything we're used to recognizing as "Civil War" either.

 

That can, in many cases, produce a situation even worse than a traditional civil war, where at least you have frontlines and defined battle zones. It produces a situation more like living in a heavily gang infiltrated city, where close regions can be hostile, and things can change from day to day.
Also, another factor-- the best way to solve that situation of mixed allegiences if by the old stand by of ethnic cleansing.

Yeah, and another problem is when things start to kick over, they're often caused by what would otherwise be a quite minor event. It catches a lot of people by surprise and suddenly everything is escalating and there's no ability to de-escelate.

Let's remember a simple fact-- Texas' governor deployed the state guard to "protect" against a possible federal take over and he wasn't laughed out of office. There were enough people who bought that BS that it wasn't political suicide. That's a pretty ugly level of balkenization right there.

 

I am confused, isn't the divide based on age, not geography.

The difference between voting trends in people under 40 is where the major divide is.

 

I would have to argue with you on the coasts and urban/suburban divide. Each state and region has it's own issues and situations that change how people vote.

I live on Long Island east of the City. We have a solid core of the island that generally votes Republican, though it has been changing to more of a purple situation due to the changing demographics (and corruption charges every 20-30 years....). In Nassau and Suffolk we have just shy of 3 million people. That's more than some states have. But because NYC has a population of 19-20 million our voices are drowned out in state government. The divide in government goes both ways.
Here's some stats about the island that I have on hand atm (wikipedia and census website are going screwy for me at the moment) Demographic Information for Long Island

Why in the world should I support the Democrats when in my area, when they are in charge they keep jacking up the rates and adding more taxes that go to funding NYC, instead of my community? (For the record I have voted for Democrats every now and than, but the amount of times that's happened I've been having less and less reasons to consider the candidate).

An example of the situation so this way I don't get bandwagon-ed.
Near 2009 the MTA of NY needed a 2+billion dollar bailout. To help pay for it they issued a 0.34% payroll tax on all counties bordering/near NYC. This helped out the cities transportation but did little for the counties that were paying in to support them but got very little for it back. In 2015 Nassau County got into a legal fight with the MTA over it and repealed the tax for the county by having it's contract severed and refused to pay. Nowadays we have our own service that's cheaper, private, and provides more routes and lines than what MTA was doing. For the most part it's done alright with the occasional money issue from time to time with cutbacks and delays.

Besides if things devolve into Civil War it's going to be a major bloodbath for both sides. There is no major issue that has the Nation split to the point of drawing blood.....mostly. And even then remember which sides are more likely to have people in the Military, let alone own their own firearms. But baring that WE ARE ALL AMERICANS (those who live in the States I mean) It doesn't matter what your political views are we shouldn't be having this level of fighting and refuse to let it devolve to the point of open rebellion.

 

It's a country vs city divide. Even in traditionally liberal states like New York or California much of the area outside of urban centers is pro Trump. Just like how urban areas in traditionally red states tend to lean against him. Balkanization or civil war would require a wide geographic divide.

The analog that comes to my mind is Iranian revolution of 1978. Iranian urban population was deeply westernized, secular and liberal. When you see pictures of Iran that look like they could be from Europe thats the Iran you see. The countryside on otherhand was religious and conservative. They were also poor and unhappy with the economic conditions. The Islamists main supporter base was among these people. As for secular Iranians they still exist in great numbers in urban areas, and especially among the diaspora who fled the regime. A lot of Iranians are not even muslims and hate the religion. But it does not matter, power rests in the countryside, not the Iranians who trend on Instagram with their fancy lifestyle.

Same I feel will hold true in America.

 

That depends on how you look at it. It helped the bridge and tunnel crowd at the expense of people who work locally.

 

I wish I could say the same*, but with the kind of people that the current Congressional/Representative GOP are turning out to be, they most likely will keep pushing the envelope until open rebellion happens.

*What I am about to say is not meant to be, condescending, flamebaity, vindictive, and/or scornful towards you, RebelsDawn, in any way, shape, or form. I'm just trying to convey my point: By that (*) I mean the last part of your comment. Yes, we shouldn't have this level of fighting, but we also shouldn't have Trump in the White House, we also shouldn't have people like Stone, Jeff, Ajit, and Scott Pruitt in positions that allow them to screw us over in the absolute worst ways possible, and we also shouldn't even have to actually worry (or hell, even have this conversation) about a Second American Revolution/Civil War. But here we are. Actually having to worry about the aforementioned event. Having people like the aforementioned four in positions of power, and having Trump.

An issue like the one in the article having any possibility of ending positively, or even bittersweetly, is, IMHO, wishful thinking (and by god does it hurt for me to say that).

 

Isn't the political divide is between the old and youth?

 

Given the similarities? A Second American Civil War would end up like Shattered Union, and given that there are plenty of politicians who can't get their heads around how destructive WMDs are...

 

The Boomers are in the process of throwing their last temper tantrum, its going to be a rather ugly process.

 

Not completely. It would be more of a divide if the young would actually go out and vote consistently, but except for the politically active ones that's just not occurring to the same degree that the older generations are.

I'm not willing to get into a fight on if Trump should or should not be in charge. The fights been fought way too much the last few months. And I will admit I can understand yours and others point of view on the whole situation. I personally don't feel the situation is as drastic as people have said...BUT I will also admit that my point of view is probably vastly different than what other people experience. My community is 75% white. And the only major crimes we have are corruption and Heroin (which has skyrocketed the last few years...) I've got 2 married parents 3 siblings and a large extended family network all within 25-50 miles of us. I will also admit I have never had the experiences that others have had. Doing the Police ride alongs in the South during college was interesting. And I've also slept on the steps of the Capital Building back in the mid 2000's when me and my friends missed our bus back to college. (not fun)

What I'm getting at is, I've had problems being empathetic with others who don't share my views, but that's mostly lack of experience. My Liberal friends are scattered all across the spectrum but I can keep a friendly relation with them, though on LGBTQ issues I got yelled at because I didn't want to go to a cross dressing party.

A lot of the current issues stem from not having a well rounded view as the OP article states. Though I'll still back the parties that I feel make the best of the situation for me.

 

You best hope it doesn't come to a civil war, because the urbanites and coasties will lose hard.

The rural folk know how to survive off the grid better, are better armed, plus they control the country's breadbasket, much of it's water supply, and it's energy reserves. If you think the military would universally, or even significantly, side with the urbanites and coasties, you're a fool.

The way you continue to demonize anyone in the opposite side of the isle and people from the country makes you what's wrong with this country, not them. Folks in the country are mostly 'live and let live', until snotty pricks from urban areas come in and tell them what to do without giving a damn about how it will affect the people in rural areas. People like you are the reason compromise is dead, and why the Blue Wall broke for Trump this election.

Watch this video, and maybe you'll understand why your views and ideas are doing more harm than good:

 

Trump is the result of a temper tantrum from people that were affected negatively from an inevitable change in the world's economy and the access to the internet is bringing change that scares much of them. Rural America is never going to rise back to prosperity and much of those jobs are not coming back. Ever. Despite what a lot of them say, identity politics plays a big for much of Sanders and Trump supporters.

 

'Defend from enemies within and without'... it's not likely that the Military goes with the group that'll destroy the economic power of the country (i.e. urban areas).

Thing is, Bernie -like most Democrats- didn't really play identity politics. The GOP made it their only gameplan politically and played it to the hilt. It's why Montana's GOP is getting slammed in the town halls and representative buildings as Montanans go 'You've got to be fucking kidding me!' and keep slamming him. Montana is also the same state where our state capital's rotunda was the fullest in it's history because they wanted to state their displeasure to the GOP Representative about his support of Trump.

Then again, Montana politics is purple in the grand scheme of things.

 

How is Governor Steve Bullock taking it?

 

Given his history of going across the aisle and working with our Democrats? Last I've heard he's catching flak but most of it is towards our Representative who is apparently our local TEAPer head.

 

You monster.

 

The day I take /pol/ talking points seriously is the day I jump out a window.

 

Am I still a monster if I've given money to my friend for his transitioning surgery?