Jirrico is attacking Galhemna based on certain assumptions and facts:I doubt Jerrico would break.
He is too seasoned a commander and has committed too much to such a high priority target for the opportunity to foil the Compacts plans.
He realizes the stakes, that if Sundial were allowed to proceed, the damage not only to Kebrak Doun but the surrounding systems and other Argosy lynchpin systems would take would ne nothing more than a herald of the first strike of the Compacts winning campaign against his people.
Read differently, he realizes that if Sundial begins, even over the course of the centuries it would take the Conpact to finish the fight, even were they to declare this current Age of Expansion at an and, that there would be no way for the Argosy to recover militarily, financially, or strategically after that assault. There are millennia of infrastructure at stake which would never ne able to be fully recovered, and even with the current situation, the Argosy is barely able to hold back the onslaught of the Compact forces.
The only reason he took the word of the Red Hand and an emissary of Chrysalis herself, and engage in this full on risky assault, was because he confirmed the rumors himself and recognized the gravity of the threat his polity was facing.
No. I don't believe there is any turning back for Noble Fleet Lord Jerrico. His government already took the risk of a coordinated attack with the Red Hand, he is now openly fighting alongside the pirate faction, amd he understands that winning here, preventing Sundial, even if he has to order every ship under his command to Ram Speed straight into the teeth of the maw, he is committed.
There may be recriminations, there may be surprises, blame, finger pointing, and scapegoating, but for him, the situation is dire.
Win here and stop Sundials strike, or lose the war.
- Fact: Sundial is coming from Galhemna.
- Fact: Sundial will crush the Principality defenses if he does nothing. If he doesn't strangle it in the womb, the Principality will be crippled to say the least. Mainly because even if he just bleeds Sundial, it has the ability to outproduce him.
- Fact: Red hand is supporting the attack.
- Fact: To kill Sundial, he needs to get to the inner systems.
- Assumption: The AI will help in the assault. (yes, we know this is a fact, but for him, it's an assumption)
- Assumption: With the AI's support, he can blow open Galhemna and kill Sundial (this is in part based on the assumption below, and also because he has recon to show something of what Galhemna holds)
- Assumption: Sundial is not yet fully ready, the chariots aren't online. (we know this is false, and he knows it in part because of Weight of Destiny)
For the Compact, the equation is rather simpler, Kemk thinks he sees all of the enemies he has in front of him. He might still be cautious, but in his view, he has two fully functional chariots, with a third on the way, although the timing might be very questionable, no FTL comms means no way to coordinate his forces. But the correlation of forces is in his favor to the extreme. He could just show off those two chariots, and force his enemies to quit the field. But he wants to kill both the Red Queen and Jirrico. So, this might mean he decides to take risks with these chariots, or the other Bastion leader might. But it also could mean that he shocks out a hundred battleships to cut off the line of retreat. Then sandwich his enemies. Either way, he is likely to conduct more intrasystem shocks. My guess is he does so with at least one chariot, or an overwhelming fleet of heavy ships, probably more than Jirrico has.
For the AI, it is only about timing. They are going to hit at the point of maximum vulnerability for the Compact, that is going to be when the Compact has the Red Queen and Jirrico by the balls (sure, why can't LeBlanc have balls) and is ready to squish them into paste. Their backs open, and then the AIs come in, and suddenly, Galhemna's inner system is in flames, but more likely, the two chariots die horrible deaths, and the attendant Compact fleet gets scattered to the winds.
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